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Newly released figures from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) give us a clearer picture of the progress that Manchester is making towards its target of reducing carbon emissions by 41% by 2020.

In the Manchester: A Certain Future (MACF) Annual Report 2014, we estimated that the city's emissions had fallen by 12.4% between 2005 and 2012. Using national emissions data for 2012, we were able to extrapolate from DECC's Local Authority figures for 2011 and get a picture of how we were doing.

However, DECC's CO2 emissions estimates for 2012 show that Manchester's emissions rose by 7.3% in 2012 (an increase was expected that year), which means the overall reduction from 2005 to 2012 was only 10.2%.  

So why did Manchester's emissions rise faster in 2012 than the national average of 5.0% and the Core Cities average of 5.1%?

So why did Manchester's emissions rise faster in 2012 than the national average of 5.0% and the Core Cities average of 5.1%?

There are three main sectors that contribute to the city's emissions. Transport is the smallest sector, making up just over a fifth (22%) of the total. The good news is that transport emissions fell by 1.5% in 2012, which is better than the Core Cities and national average reductions.

The domestic sector is next, contributing just under a third (32%) of Manchester's emissions.  The city's households used less electricity in 2012 than in 2011, and weather-normalised figures showed gas use would have fallen by 2.6% if temperatures in 2012 were the same as in 2011. 

However, domestic emissions still rose by just over 10%, in line with the national average, due to increases in the use of coal for electricity generation (as the shale gas boom in the US pushed down coal prices), and gas for heating (as 2012 was a colder year than 2011).

Business emissions are up

The biggest contributor is the business sector, which is responsible for just under half (46%) of the city's emissions. The picture here is less promising, with 2012 seeing a 10% increase in industrial & commercial emissions (twice the national average), and an increase in both electricity and weather-normalised gas use. 

We hope this will serve both as a timely reminder to the business sector of the crucial role it has to play in helping the city to meet its carbon reduction targets, and a challenge to businesses to take action to become more energy efficient and realise the cost savings that can be achieved from doing so.

As a result of the larger than expected increase in 2012, we now project that Manchester's emissions will have fallen by 12.0% (instead of 14.2%) between 2005 and 2013, putting us on a trajectory towards a 22.6% (instead of 27%) reduction by 2020 if emissions continue to fall at the same average rate as they did over the eight years to 2013.

These findings demonstrate the importance of Manchester influencing national energy policy to help achieve our 41% target

As set out in the MACF Annual Report 2014, these findings demonstrate the importance of Manchester influencing national energy policy to help achieve our 41% target, as well as stepping up local action to reduce demand through energy efficiency and behaviour change, and to generate more renewable, low-carbon energy.

The MACF CO2 Monitoring Group will now be undertaking further analysis of these new figures to improve our understanding and predictions for future years, and to inform the production of the MACF plan for 2015-20.